(The preliminary decision that was leaked dealt with the case of Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Organization. See the December 8, 2021 post for a further discussion of the oral arguments, and my incorrect prediction.)
In Dobbs, the issue was the 15 week limit put on the right to get an abortion by the State of Mississippi. That was the limited issue before the Supreme Court. Of course, the Supreme Court is not limited to a review of the technical issue before them. And if Justice Alito's decision becomes final, the Court will have reversed the 1973, 7 to 2 decision, in Roe vs. Wade.
In listening to the oral arguments, it was clear to me that Justice Roberts saw the push to overturn Roe. He kept trying to focus everyone's attention on the 15 week rule. As I wrote in December, had Roberts been in the majority, I believe he would have assigned the writing of the opinion to himself. I believe he would have held that the 15 week limit was not an "undue burden" per Casey, but would have also maintained the Constitutional right to an abortion under Roe. The three liberal justices would have gone gone along in order to avoid an overturning of Roe, but likely would have written their own concurring opinions objecting to any restrictions on Roe.
I would have sided with Roberts. Here is why. First, Roe is nearly a 50 year old precedent. I cannot help but wonder if any of the five Justices signing on to the preliminary draft decision, did not see any benefit to a gradual change in the law regarding abortion. Yes, abortion has been one of the most contentious issues in our country since Roe was decided. But did none of those Justices see a benefit to judicial economy? In deciding cases based on the facts before them - in Dobbs it was the 15 week rule.
The other reason that I would have sided with Roberts is my disagreement with some of the state laws that have recently been passed. I would allow abortion to protect the life of the mother. I would allow abortion to protect the health of the mother. I would allow abortion in cases of rape and incest. And there are simply too many instances of situations where, at least within the first 15 weeks proscribed by Dobbs, the government should stay out of it.