The Coronavirus Eight Weeks Later - The Pressure Builds

The numbers. In the prior week another 3.169 million people filed for unemployment. That brings the 7 week total to 33.5 million. In the month of April alone, 20,500,000 people lost their jobs, resulting in an unemployment rate of 14.7%. At the height of the Great Depression, in 1933, the unemployment rate reached 24.9%. The current rate is the highest since 1933. And, an article on AOL suggests that the rate may actually be 20%, because it is believed that many people were improperly classified as "employed but absent" as opposed to "unemployed on temporary layoff." Imagine this - in February, a mere 3 months ago - the unemployment rate was only 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years. Not surprisingly, the hardest hit sector was "leisure and hospitality," with a loss of 7,653,000 jobs.

Worldwide total of coronavirus cases comes to 4,178,154, with deaths at 283,734. The US totals are 1.36 million cases and 80,562 deaths. New York and New Jersey remain the worst two states, with 333,000 cases and 21,271 death in New York, and 137,000 cases and 9,116 deaths in New Jersey. Then we have Massachusetts with 76,743 cases and 4840 deaths, Illinois with 76,085 cases and 3,349 deaths and California with 64,561 cases and 2,678 deaths. Pennsylvania is sixth with 52,915 cases and 3,416 deaths, and Connecticut is tenth with 31,784 cases and 2,797 deaths. The states of NY, NJ, Mass., Penn. and Conn. give us about half of the national total.

In California, Los Angeles County has about 25% of the state's population, about 10 million people out of an estimated 40 million statewide. But, as of yesterday, the County had about half of the state's total cases (31,197) and over half of the number of deaths (1,512). As of Friday, the Governor allowed more places to open up, including toy stores, clothing stores, bookstores, sporting goods stores and flower shops - in time for Mother's Day. However, as with restaurants, they are only open for curbside pickup or delivery. Golf courses also opened, as did various outdoor hiking trails and car dealerships. Notwithstanding California and other states partly reopening, they continue to recommend that those 65 or older stay home.

Fox reported that about 40% of McDonald's profits come from breakfast. But breakfast sales are down. Makes sense. If people need not rush out to work in the morning, they are not leaving home just to get a breakfast. People can just as easily have a leisurely bowl of cereal. Here is an interesting number - in April, gun sales were up 71.3% from April, 2019. Approximately 1,797,910 guns were purchased this April. In March the number was 2,583,238. In uncertain times people want to know that they can protect themselves from whatever might happen.

The pressure builds. As states reopen, Governors are not simply feeling the political pressure. They are not only feeling the pressure from businesses. The states themselves are hurting. California is projecting a $54.3 billion budget deficit. Think about it. Most states have a state income tax, but with so many people out of work that revenue source is deeply depressed. The same applies to the sales tax, with so many retail establishments being closed. Then we have the gas tax - but how many people are driving to work? Or anywhere else? California is also projecting an 18% unemployment rate, compared to only 3.9% in January. One friend, a very bright guy whom I have known for decades, and who is a medical doctor, disagrees with the openings. This is a man who has a long history of being distrustful of both big government and big business. Nevertheless, he says states should not be opening until they have the capacity for unlimited testing, and that the country have at least 100,000 contact tracers (health care workers), have quarantine rules for those infected, with civil authorities being able to back up the quarantines.

The New York Times attempted to address the issue in their 5/3/20 full page editorial, titled "When Liberty and Health Collide." The Times: "Civil liberties may feel to some like a second-order problem when thousands of Americans are dying of a disease with no known treatment or vaccine." Of course, the Times was unable to refrain from attacking President Trump: "...it is wealthy and powerful conservatives and their allies, including President Trump and Fox News, who are driving the relatively small protests demanding a 'liberation' of the states from oppressive lockdowns..." And, let's just blame Trump for the whole thing: "It's possibe that at least some of the current lockdowns could have been avoided had the Trump administration led the way back in January when we still had time to take advantage of the information coming out of China and prepare the United States for what lay ahead." The Times called it a "catastrophic failure of timely government action."

One Op-Ed contributor to the Times (Farhad Manjoo) wrote this back in January (1/29/20): "As the World Health Organization declared last week, it remains too early to call the outbreak a global public health emergency." Too early! Of course, when Trump shut down incoming flights from China at the end of January, he was called "xenophobic" by Joe Biden and others. Manjoo: "So far, President Trump has offered a measured response to the virus." A measured response! Again, this was in the New York Times, known for publishing Op-Eds with which they agree.

Conservative commentator Dennis Prager had a different take. "The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem 'essential' has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s." He also cited the UN's World Food Programme: "...by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation - double last year's figures." Said the WFP Director: "There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself." A sobering thought indeed.