In the week ending on 5/16/2020, another 2.4 million people applied for unemployment benefits. That brings the 9 week total to 38.6 million people unemployed. I do not even know what to say anymore. On Fox they were talking about bread/food lines in New York City. On the other hand, NBC reported that Walmart and Target combined made $10 billion more online and in stores in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019. Unfortunately, small business revenue was down by 75%.
Meanwhile, many counties in California have been given the okay to partially reopen. Mall stores that have curbside access can reopen. Dining in restaurants is permitted again - assuming they maintain social distancing between the tables, as well as other safety measures. As I expected, partial opening seemed to mean to many people "back to normal." We have seen young people standing in a group right next to one another, outside of a local Starbucks. We have seen similar non-social distancing on TV. In an AP/NORC poll, conducted 5/14-5/18, 69% of Republicans said they would likely go to reopened restaurants, compared to 37% of Democrats. There was less of a disparity with regards to retail shopping - 82% of Republicans were likely to go, compared to 61% of Democrats. The margin of error for the poll was +/- 4.2%.
Dr. Mark Siegel reported on an interesting study by JP Morgan, as reported by Yael Halon on Fox. "States and countries where lockdowns were implemented have had a higher rate of COVID-19 cases than locations that remained open throughout the pandemic." Dr. Siegel: "Locking down destroys our health care system to the point where we have more heart attacks that are not going to the hospital now, more strokes that are not going to the hospital now. More cancer that is not being screened. People say they are afraid to go to the emergency room right now."
Meanwhile, we continue to see a struggle between the federal government and certain local governments. President Trump was particularly concerned about houses of worship not being allowed to reopen when retail outlets were. Trump: "I call upon governors to allow our churches and places of worship to open right now. If they don't do it, I will override the governors." While I agree that houses of worship should be allowed to reopen if they can maintain the same safety protocols that restaurants and retail stores must abide by, I do not agree that the President has the authority to override the governors. General police powers are reserved to the states. And, I am not a fan of the heavy hand of the federal government interfering with state actions, absent a clear violation of federal law.
The DOJ was also threatening both LA City and LA County. In a letter to Mayor Garcetti and the County's Director of Public Health, the DOJ wrote: "Reports of your recent public statements indicate that you suggested the possibility of long-term lockdown of the residents in the City and County of Los Angeles, regardless of the legal justification for such restrictions...Any such approach may be both arbitrary and unlawful." Again, I am not convinced of either the legitimacy or the appropriateness of federal interference with states, counties and cities, absent a violation of federal law.
Speaking of the heavy hand of the federal government, it was recently reported that Lori Laughlin and her husband, Mossimo Giannulli, decided to plead guilty in connection with their actions related to the college admissions scandal. The allegation is that the couple paid $500,000 to Rick Singer in order to get their daughters admitted to the University of Southern California. Laughlin pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, and in exchange for the plea is to serve 2 months in prison, pay a fine of $150,000, and perform 100 hours of community service. Her husband pleaded guilty to the same charges, plus honest services wire and mail fraud, in exchange for a 5 month prison term, a fine of $250,000 and 250 hours of community service. I am not sure why the different charges and punishment. But that's not my beef.
What bothers me is that, having committed the act of bribery (through Singer), and falsifying their daughters' involvement in sports, they faced up to 50 years in prison if they went to trial and were convicted on all counts. 50 years in prison for trying to get their daughters admitted to USC? That is outrageous. They were not accused of terrorism or mass murder or running a drug cartel. But, because the feds are able to allege their actions violate various federal laws, each carrying lengthy prison terms, they dared not risk a trial. I am not defending this couple's actions - but I am objecting to the fact that what is essentially a single act can violate numerous laws, allowing the Feds to threaten what amounts to life in prison. What if they were innocent? Could anyone take the risk of a 50 year prison sentence? It is not an answer to say they are only getting 2 and 5 months respectively. Not when the threat of 50 years hangs over their heads.
As of today, the latest numbers I saw showed that the US had 1.68 million cases of coronavirus, with 98,011 deaths. New York and New Jersey combine to have 30.5% of the total cases in the US (360,000 and 153,000, respectively), and 35% of the total deaths (23,282 and 11,081, respectively). Next is Illinois with 108,000 cases and 4,790 deaths, Massachusetts with 91,662 cases and 6,304 deaths, and California with 90,631 cases and 3,708 deaths. LA County, with a quarter of the state's population, had 49.6% of the state's cases (44,988) and 56.7% of the state's deaths (2,104). So, who is to say who knows better on reopening LA? Ultimately, it appears the people will decide.
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Sunday, May 17, 2020
The Coronavirus Nine Weeks Later - Did the New York Times Really Publish That?
Some numbers. In the week ending May 9, another 2,981,000 people applied for unemployment. That brings the eight week total to 36,500,000 people. Absolutely frightening. From February to March, retail sales fell 8.3%. From March to April, sales fell 16.4%. According to the 5/16/20 New York Times, the hardest hit segment in retail was clothing stores, down 89% from February to April. Next were furniture stores, down 67%, followed by electronics and appliances down 65%. Food services and drinking establishments were down 50%. Gas stations were down 41%.
In a story out of Bridgeport, Connecticut, we are reminded how these stay at home orders are taking us back to an earlier era. A dairy company had stopped their home deliveries 28 years ago. Now, the request for home delivery is booming, as they deliver milk, eggs, cheese and yogurt. I am sure I am not the only one to remember, as a kid, having a metal milk container outside our door, for the milk delivery man. The container held 4 quart bottles (they were glass bottles back then, with the cream at the top), and we would put the empty bottles back in the container, to be replaced with new ones. The local grocery store would deliver; although, at times my Mom would give me a list which I would give to one of the employees, who would bag it up for me to bring home; and they would add the bill to my Mom's tab. We would also get home delivery of seltzer (my Dad loved it), and kosher meats.
On the good news front, this increased demand for home delivery has resulted in Instacart hiring 30,000 new employees. And 31% of US households purchased groceries online, an increase of 145% from a year earlier. Here are some interesting numbers unrelated to the effects of the coronavirus. At the end of 2018, Chick fil-A was fifth in overall restaurant sales, behind McDonald's, Starbucks, Subway and Taco Bell. By the end of 2019, Chick fil-A's sales increased by $1.3 billion, allowing it to move into third place, behind only McDonald's and Starbucks. Their success is notable not only because they are closed on Sundays; but also because of the (in my opinion) unconstitutional efforts by various local governments to prevent Chick fil-A from opening new outlets. (See prior blog posts.)
As noted in the last post, the states are feeling the pressure from significantly reduced tax revenues. The largest state, California, has the Governor proposing a cut in the states's budget by $6.1 billion. He has also proposed a 10% pay cut for state employees, which is estimated to save about $2.8 billion. Any cut would reverse a long term trend of ever rising budgets.
As of last night, the US was reported to have 1,435,098 cases of coronavirus, with 87,315 deaths. New York was still leading with 358,099 cases and 28,134 deaths, followed by New Jersey with 146,389 cases and 10,260 deaths. Massachusetts was fourth (after Illinois) with 84,933 cases and 5,705 deaths, and Connecticut was twelfth with 36,703 cases and 3,339 deaths. California was fifth, with 78,685 cases and 3,208 deaths. Los Angeles County (with 1/4 of the state's population) far exceeded its proportional share of the cases and deaths - 37,303 and 1,793 respectively.
Los Angeles County has extended its stay at home order for 3 months, according to the County's public health Director. However, it is expected that restrictions will be eased during that time. The Hollywood Bowl has canceled its 2020 concert season. The California State University system, with 23 campuses and over 480,000 undergrads (making it the largest public university in the country) has announced that students will not be allowed on campus for the fall semester. The University of California's 10 campuses are also unlikely to fully reopen. Also on the good news front, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (56% to 44%) in a special election held to fill the seat in California's 25th Congressional District vacated by Democrat Katie Hill. A Republican taking a Democratic held seat in the very blue state of California is not exactly a common occurrence.
Did the New York Times really publish this? The New York Times seems to be a little defensive over the fact that New York City has had such a high number of cases and deaths: 197,486 cases and 20,214 deaths. The paper has been running a series of Op-Eds and editorials in defense of cities. On May 15, they ran an Op-Ed by Mary Bassett, a professor and Director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University. In the piece, she argues that "blaming density for disease (including the coronavirus) is misguided." Ordinarily, I might be surprised by the editors letting this piece make it into the paper or online. But when the agenda calls, facts don't seem to matter. Professor Bassett tells us that "in the United States, over half of the population lives in cities of one million residents or more." Not hardly. The cities with one million or more people include NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose and Austin. 11 cities, with a total population of about 28 million people, in a country of about 330 million people.
Some may say, perhaps she meant "metropolitan areas" and not cities. Perhaps. But rather sloppy for a professor, and for the editors. But then she tells us this: "California and Hawaii, for example, have high population density - but not the highest COVID-19 mortality rates of the states." What? High Population density? Not even in the top ten of states. New Jersey is the mostly densely populated state, with a coronavirus death rate of 107 per 100,000 people. New York, is seventh overall in population density (given the more thinly populated upstate areas), but thanks to densely populated NYC has 140 deaths per 100,000 people. And what about California and Hawaii, cited by Professor Bassett? California is eleventh in density, and has 7 deaths per 100,000. Hawaii is thirteenth in density with 1 death per 100,000. The Northeastern states, NY, NJ, Connecticut, Massachusetts Rhode Island an Pennsylvania - are all far more densely populated and all have far higher rates of death from coronavirus.
I do not question the value of cities, although the politics of many Democratic-led cities is another matter. But, is this really the best argument to be made in support of cities? The message is clear - be wary of what you read, especially if it comes in the form of editorials and Op-Eds in the mainstream media.
In a story out of Bridgeport, Connecticut, we are reminded how these stay at home orders are taking us back to an earlier era. A dairy company had stopped their home deliveries 28 years ago. Now, the request for home delivery is booming, as they deliver milk, eggs, cheese and yogurt. I am sure I am not the only one to remember, as a kid, having a metal milk container outside our door, for the milk delivery man. The container held 4 quart bottles (they were glass bottles back then, with the cream at the top), and we would put the empty bottles back in the container, to be replaced with new ones. The local grocery store would deliver; although, at times my Mom would give me a list which I would give to one of the employees, who would bag it up for me to bring home; and they would add the bill to my Mom's tab. We would also get home delivery of seltzer (my Dad loved it), and kosher meats.
On the good news front, this increased demand for home delivery has resulted in Instacart hiring 30,000 new employees. And 31% of US households purchased groceries online, an increase of 145% from a year earlier. Here are some interesting numbers unrelated to the effects of the coronavirus. At the end of 2018, Chick fil-A was fifth in overall restaurant sales, behind McDonald's, Starbucks, Subway and Taco Bell. By the end of 2019, Chick fil-A's sales increased by $1.3 billion, allowing it to move into third place, behind only McDonald's and Starbucks. Their success is notable not only because they are closed on Sundays; but also because of the (in my opinion) unconstitutional efforts by various local governments to prevent Chick fil-A from opening new outlets. (See prior blog posts.)
As noted in the last post, the states are feeling the pressure from significantly reduced tax revenues. The largest state, California, has the Governor proposing a cut in the states's budget by $6.1 billion. He has also proposed a 10% pay cut for state employees, which is estimated to save about $2.8 billion. Any cut would reverse a long term trend of ever rising budgets.
As of last night, the US was reported to have 1,435,098 cases of coronavirus, with 87,315 deaths. New York was still leading with 358,099 cases and 28,134 deaths, followed by New Jersey with 146,389 cases and 10,260 deaths. Massachusetts was fourth (after Illinois) with 84,933 cases and 5,705 deaths, and Connecticut was twelfth with 36,703 cases and 3,339 deaths. California was fifth, with 78,685 cases and 3,208 deaths. Los Angeles County (with 1/4 of the state's population) far exceeded its proportional share of the cases and deaths - 37,303 and 1,793 respectively.
Los Angeles County has extended its stay at home order for 3 months, according to the County's public health Director. However, it is expected that restrictions will be eased during that time. The Hollywood Bowl has canceled its 2020 concert season. The California State University system, with 23 campuses and over 480,000 undergrads (making it the largest public university in the country) has announced that students will not be allowed on campus for the fall semester. The University of California's 10 campuses are also unlikely to fully reopen. Also on the good news front, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (56% to 44%) in a special election held to fill the seat in California's 25th Congressional District vacated by Democrat Katie Hill. A Republican taking a Democratic held seat in the very blue state of California is not exactly a common occurrence.
Did the New York Times really publish this? The New York Times seems to be a little defensive over the fact that New York City has had such a high number of cases and deaths: 197,486 cases and 20,214 deaths. The paper has been running a series of Op-Eds and editorials in defense of cities. On May 15, they ran an Op-Ed by Mary Bassett, a professor and Director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University. In the piece, she argues that "blaming density for disease (including the coronavirus) is misguided." Ordinarily, I might be surprised by the editors letting this piece make it into the paper or online. But when the agenda calls, facts don't seem to matter. Professor Bassett tells us that "in the United States, over half of the population lives in cities of one million residents or more." Not hardly. The cities with one million or more people include NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose and Austin. 11 cities, with a total population of about 28 million people, in a country of about 330 million people.
Some may say, perhaps she meant "metropolitan areas" and not cities. Perhaps. But rather sloppy for a professor, and for the editors. But then she tells us this: "California and Hawaii, for example, have high population density - but not the highest COVID-19 mortality rates of the states." What? High Population density? Not even in the top ten of states. New Jersey is the mostly densely populated state, with a coronavirus death rate of 107 per 100,000 people. New York, is seventh overall in population density (given the more thinly populated upstate areas), but thanks to densely populated NYC has 140 deaths per 100,000 people. And what about California and Hawaii, cited by Professor Bassett? California is eleventh in density, and has 7 deaths per 100,000. Hawaii is thirteenth in density with 1 death per 100,000. The Northeastern states, NY, NJ, Connecticut, Massachusetts Rhode Island an Pennsylvania - are all far more densely populated and all have far higher rates of death from coronavirus.
I do not question the value of cities, although the politics of many Democratic-led cities is another matter. But, is this really the best argument to be made in support of cities? The message is clear - be wary of what you read, especially if it comes in the form of editorials and Op-Eds in the mainstream media.
Sunday, May 10, 2020
The Coronavirus Eight Weeks Later - The Pressure Builds
The numbers. In the prior week another 3.169 million people filed for unemployment. That brings the 7 week total to 33.5 million. In the month of April alone, 20,500,000 people lost their jobs, resulting in an unemployment rate of 14.7%. At the height of the Great Depression, in 1933, the unemployment rate reached 24.9%. The current rate is the highest since 1933. And, an article on AOL suggests that the rate may actually be 20%, because it is believed that many people were improperly classified as "employed but absent" as opposed to "unemployed on temporary layoff." Imagine this - in February, a mere 3 months ago - the unemployment rate was only 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years. Not surprisingly, the hardest hit sector was "leisure and hospitality," with a loss of 7,653,000 jobs.
Worldwide total of coronavirus cases comes to 4,178,154, with deaths at 283,734. The US totals are 1.36 million cases and 80,562 deaths. New York and New Jersey remain the worst two states, with 333,000 cases and 21,271 death in New York, and 137,000 cases and 9,116 deaths in New Jersey. Then we have Massachusetts with 76,743 cases and 4840 deaths, Illinois with 76,085 cases and 3,349 deaths and California with 64,561 cases and 2,678 deaths. Pennsylvania is sixth with 52,915 cases and 3,416 deaths, and Connecticut is tenth with 31,784 cases and 2,797 deaths. The states of NY, NJ, Mass., Penn. and Conn. give us about half of the national total.
In California, Los Angeles County has about 25% of the state's population, about 10 million people out of an estimated 40 million statewide. But, as of yesterday, the County had about half of the state's total cases (31,197) and over half of the number of deaths (1,512). As of Friday, the Governor allowed more places to open up, including toy stores, clothing stores, bookstores, sporting goods stores and flower shops - in time for Mother's Day. However, as with restaurants, they are only open for curbside pickup or delivery. Golf courses also opened, as did various outdoor hiking trails and car dealerships. Notwithstanding California and other states partly reopening, they continue to recommend that those 65 or older stay home.
Fox reported that about 40% of McDonald's profits come from breakfast. But breakfast sales are down. Makes sense. If people need not rush out to work in the morning, they are not leaving home just to get a breakfast. People can just as easily have a leisurely bowl of cereal. Here is an interesting number - in April, gun sales were up 71.3% from April, 2019. Approximately 1,797,910 guns were purchased this April. In March the number was 2,583,238. In uncertain times people want to know that they can protect themselves from whatever might happen.
The pressure builds. As states reopen, Governors are not simply feeling the political pressure. They are not only feeling the pressure from businesses. The states themselves are hurting. California is projecting a $54.3 billion budget deficit. Think about it. Most states have a state income tax, but with so many people out of work that revenue source is deeply depressed. The same applies to the sales tax, with so many retail establishments being closed. Then we have the gas tax - but how many people are driving to work? Or anywhere else? California is also projecting an 18% unemployment rate, compared to only 3.9% in January. One friend, a very bright guy whom I have known for decades, and who is a medical doctor, disagrees with the openings. This is a man who has a long history of being distrustful of both big government and big business. Nevertheless, he says states should not be opening until they have the capacity for unlimited testing, and that the country have at least 100,000 contact tracers (health care workers), have quarantine rules for those infected, with civil authorities being able to back up the quarantines.
The New York Times attempted to address the issue in their 5/3/20 full page editorial, titled "When Liberty and Health Collide." The Times: "Civil liberties may feel to some like a second-order problem when thousands of Americans are dying of a disease with no known treatment or vaccine." Of course, the Times was unable to refrain from attacking President Trump: "...it is wealthy and powerful conservatives and their allies, including President Trump and Fox News, who are driving the relatively small protests demanding a 'liberation' of the states from oppressive lockdowns..." And, let's just blame Trump for the whole thing: "It's possibe that at least some of the current lockdowns could have been avoided had the Trump administration led the way back in January when we still had time to take advantage of the information coming out of China and prepare the United States for what lay ahead." The Times called it a "catastrophic failure of timely government action."
One Op-Ed contributor to the Times (Farhad Manjoo) wrote this back in January (1/29/20): "As the World Health Organization declared last week, it remains too early to call the outbreak a global public health emergency." Too early! Of course, when Trump shut down incoming flights from China at the end of January, he was called "xenophobic" by Joe Biden and others. Manjoo: "So far, President Trump has offered a measured response to the virus." A measured response! Again, this was in the New York Times, known for publishing Op-Eds with which they agree.
Conservative commentator Dennis Prager had a different take. "The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem 'essential' has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s." He also cited the UN's World Food Programme: "...by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation - double last year's figures." Said the WFP Director: "There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself." A sobering thought indeed.
Worldwide total of coronavirus cases comes to 4,178,154, with deaths at 283,734. The US totals are 1.36 million cases and 80,562 deaths. New York and New Jersey remain the worst two states, with 333,000 cases and 21,271 death in New York, and 137,000 cases and 9,116 deaths in New Jersey. Then we have Massachusetts with 76,743 cases and 4840 deaths, Illinois with 76,085 cases and 3,349 deaths and California with 64,561 cases and 2,678 deaths. Pennsylvania is sixth with 52,915 cases and 3,416 deaths, and Connecticut is tenth with 31,784 cases and 2,797 deaths. The states of NY, NJ, Mass., Penn. and Conn. give us about half of the national total.
In California, Los Angeles County has about 25% of the state's population, about 10 million people out of an estimated 40 million statewide. But, as of yesterday, the County had about half of the state's total cases (31,197) and over half of the number of deaths (1,512). As of Friday, the Governor allowed more places to open up, including toy stores, clothing stores, bookstores, sporting goods stores and flower shops - in time for Mother's Day. However, as with restaurants, they are only open for curbside pickup or delivery. Golf courses also opened, as did various outdoor hiking trails and car dealerships. Notwithstanding California and other states partly reopening, they continue to recommend that those 65 or older stay home.
Fox reported that about 40% of McDonald's profits come from breakfast. But breakfast sales are down. Makes sense. If people need not rush out to work in the morning, they are not leaving home just to get a breakfast. People can just as easily have a leisurely bowl of cereal. Here is an interesting number - in April, gun sales were up 71.3% from April, 2019. Approximately 1,797,910 guns were purchased this April. In March the number was 2,583,238. In uncertain times people want to know that they can protect themselves from whatever might happen.
The pressure builds. As states reopen, Governors are not simply feeling the political pressure. They are not only feeling the pressure from businesses. The states themselves are hurting. California is projecting a $54.3 billion budget deficit. Think about it. Most states have a state income tax, but with so many people out of work that revenue source is deeply depressed. The same applies to the sales tax, with so many retail establishments being closed. Then we have the gas tax - but how many people are driving to work? Or anywhere else? California is also projecting an 18% unemployment rate, compared to only 3.9% in January. One friend, a very bright guy whom I have known for decades, and who is a medical doctor, disagrees with the openings. This is a man who has a long history of being distrustful of both big government and big business. Nevertheless, he says states should not be opening until they have the capacity for unlimited testing, and that the country have at least 100,000 contact tracers (health care workers), have quarantine rules for those infected, with civil authorities being able to back up the quarantines.
The New York Times attempted to address the issue in their 5/3/20 full page editorial, titled "When Liberty and Health Collide." The Times: "Civil liberties may feel to some like a second-order problem when thousands of Americans are dying of a disease with no known treatment or vaccine." Of course, the Times was unable to refrain from attacking President Trump: "...it is wealthy and powerful conservatives and their allies, including President Trump and Fox News, who are driving the relatively small protests demanding a 'liberation' of the states from oppressive lockdowns..." And, let's just blame Trump for the whole thing: "It's possibe that at least some of the current lockdowns could have been avoided had the Trump administration led the way back in January when we still had time to take advantage of the information coming out of China and prepare the United States for what lay ahead." The Times called it a "catastrophic failure of timely government action."
One Op-Ed contributor to the Times (Farhad Manjoo) wrote this back in January (1/29/20): "As the World Health Organization declared last week, it remains too early to call the outbreak a global public health emergency." Too early! Of course, when Trump shut down incoming flights from China at the end of January, he was called "xenophobic" by Joe Biden and others. Manjoo: "So far, President Trump has offered a measured response to the virus." A measured response! Again, this was in the New York Times, known for publishing Op-Eds with which they agree.
Conservative commentator Dennis Prager had a different take. "The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem 'essential' has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s." He also cited the UN's World Food Programme: "...by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation - double last year's figures." Said the WFP Director: "There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself." A sobering thought indeed.
Sunday, May 3, 2020
The Coronavirus Seven Weeks Later - Some Religious and Political Issues
The numbers. I am starting this post with the unemployment numbers. As another 3,839,000 new claims for unemployment were filed, we have now reached a disturbingly high 30.2 million unemployed in six weeks time. The New York City metropolitan area is the most populated metropolitan area in the country. In the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut there are nearly 32 million people. It is as if nearly every person in those states were out of work. (I know, children and babies are not working. I am looking at the sheer numbers, which are frightening.)
The U.S. currently has 1.17 million cases of Covid-19, with 68,173 people having died. New York State still leads the way with 323,883 cases and 24,648 deaths. New Jersey is next with 127,438 cases and 7,886 deaths, then Massachusetts with 66,263 cases and 3,846 deaths, Illinois with 58,505 cases and 2,559 deaths and California with 53,732 cases and 2,192 deaths. Michigan is seventh on the list, but third in the number of deaths with 4,020.
A Gallup poll from 4/14 through 4/28 put Trump's approval rating back at 49%, with 47% disapproving of his job. That approval rating is up from 43% two weeks prior. Broken down by party, 93% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, but only 8% of Democrats do. However, 47% of Independents approve of Trump's job.
Is the virus a conspiracy? One tenured professor at the Rutgers University Department of Women's, Gender and Sexuality Studies, thought so. She does not think well of Trump voters: "F*ck each and every Trump supporter." And she Tweeted this: "Not only do white conservatives not care about Black life, but my most cynical negative read of the white supremacists among them is that they welcome this mass winnowing of Black folks in order to slow demographic shifts and shore up political power." This Tweet also: "But the depths of white depravity - the adamant refusal to be swayed by facts, reason or the value of life itself, especially when those lives are Black - it staggers me." White depravity? Sure there are neo-Nazi white supremacists. But they are small in number. And they pretty much hate everybody else - Jews, Hispanics, etc. This virus is affecting every segment of society. I do not get her point. Are whites devastated by this illness okay with dying because Blacks are dying in greater numbers? Need it always be about race? And NJ taxpayers get to pay this professor's salary.
With large gatherings being barred, the result has been that religious services cannot take place other than online, such as through Zoom. Of course, there are legal and First Amendment issues regarding religious practice. One left-wing "progressive" site, the American Constitution Society, claims no issue is involved in shutting down religious services. In citing deceased Justice Scalia, they wrote: "Americans do not have a Constitutional right to disobey generally applicable laws that were enacted without an intent to discriminate against religion." But in a case out of Virginia, one pastor was threatened with jail time and a fine of $2500 for holding a religious service for 16 people who, apparently, were able to practice social distancing in a church that is able to hold 293 people. The DOJ is siding with the pastor, as religious freedom should perhaps prevail over the Governor's order, when safety was being practiced.
From the religious viewpoint, One Christian friend and reader wrote this: "The Christian tradition recognizes that one should not "tempt G-d," or commit the sin of presumption, by unnecessarily engaging in a dangerous activity in anticipation that G-d will provide protection." One Rabbi and Jewish scholar discussed it this way: "We are taught that the protection and guarding of human life takes precedence over all...I frame it in the positive...It is a Mitzvah to safeguard ourselves...We are doing a Mitzvah staying home." (A Mitzvah is a good deed, but one which our religion commands us to do.)
On the political front, the allegations of sexual assault against Joe Biden are getting greater coverage in the news. Unlike the allegations against Republicans, the media is mostly coming to the defense of Biden, as are Democratic politicians and rank and file Democrats. Commenting on the allegations of Tara Reade, one letter writer to the New York Times wrote this: "This is a species of vainglorious righteousness run amok, and does no honor to the principles the #MeToo movement has embraced...This is the moment to stand united for the greater good of the nation." The greater good being to defeat Trump, even if it means ignoring serious charges against Biden. Here's another letter writer: "For those of you who have been all-in to the #MeToo Movement but are now having trouble supporting Mr. Biden in light of Tara Reade's allegation of sexual assault (which Mr. Biden denies), can you handle being a hypocrite if it means getting Mr. Trump out of the White House? I say, yes, I am happy to be a hypocrite. Please join me." I appreciate the honesty. And the writer reflects what I have said in the blog about many on the left for years - the ends justify the means. The end is getting Trump out of office, even if the means is ignoring a woman's voice and justice for her (should the allegations be true).
The New York Times faced a dilemma with regards to the allegations. They hate Trump and are desperate to have a Democratic victory in November, and Biden is the likely Democratic nominee. But they have also been in the forefront of the #MeToo movement. In the paper's 5/1/20 editorial, they wrote this: "Americans deserve to know more about a sexual assault accusation against the likely Democratic nominee." Sounds good. But then this: "The Democratic National Committee should move to investigate the matter swiftly and thoroughly, with the full cooperation of the Biden campaign." So, have the Dems investigate their own presidential candidate? With the candidate's help? Hmmm. But DNC Chair Tom Perez made it clear that such an investigation will never happen: "Barack Obama trusted Joe Biden. I trust Joe Biden." Investigation over.
Bret Stephens, the former conservative Op-Ed writer in the Wall Street Journal, who switched to the New York Times after becoming a "never-Trumper," had an Op-Ed on the Tara Reade allegations the same day as the editorial. Stephens: "Being 'heard' is not, and should never be, the same as being believed. The entire difference between hearsay and proof, rumor and reason, mob rule and justice, lies in the distinction." Of course, he is correct; although Judge Kavanaugh got no such benefit of the doubt from the media and the left. Then, the Democrats were on the side of the Queen of Hearts (from Alice in Wonderland): "Sentence first - verdict afterwards." When Alice objected, the Queen shouted "Off with her head!" Indeed.
The U.S. currently has 1.17 million cases of Covid-19, with 68,173 people having died. New York State still leads the way with 323,883 cases and 24,648 deaths. New Jersey is next with 127,438 cases and 7,886 deaths, then Massachusetts with 66,263 cases and 3,846 deaths, Illinois with 58,505 cases and 2,559 deaths and California with 53,732 cases and 2,192 deaths. Michigan is seventh on the list, but third in the number of deaths with 4,020.
A Gallup poll from 4/14 through 4/28 put Trump's approval rating back at 49%, with 47% disapproving of his job. That approval rating is up from 43% two weeks prior. Broken down by party, 93% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, but only 8% of Democrats do. However, 47% of Independents approve of Trump's job.
Is the virus a conspiracy? One tenured professor at the Rutgers University Department of Women's, Gender and Sexuality Studies, thought so. She does not think well of Trump voters: "F*ck each and every Trump supporter." And she Tweeted this: "Not only do white conservatives not care about Black life, but my most cynical negative read of the white supremacists among them is that they welcome this mass winnowing of Black folks in order to slow demographic shifts and shore up political power." This Tweet also: "But the depths of white depravity - the adamant refusal to be swayed by facts, reason or the value of life itself, especially when those lives are Black - it staggers me." White depravity? Sure there are neo-Nazi white supremacists. But they are small in number. And they pretty much hate everybody else - Jews, Hispanics, etc. This virus is affecting every segment of society. I do not get her point. Are whites devastated by this illness okay with dying because Blacks are dying in greater numbers? Need it always be about race? And NJ taxpayers get to pay this professor's salary.
With large gatherings being barred, the result has been that religious services cannot take place other than online, such as through Zoom. Of course, there are legal and First Amendment issues regarding religious practice. One left-wing "progressive" site, the American Constitution Society, claims no issue is involved in shutting down religious services. In citing deceased Justice Scalia, they wrote: "Americans do not have a Constitutional right to disobey generally applicable laws that were enacted without an intent to discriminate against religion." But in a case out of Virginia, one pastor was threatened with jail time and a fine of $2500 for holding a religious service for 16 people who, apparently, were able to practice social distancing in a church that is able to hold 293 people. The DOJ is siding with the pastor, as religious freedom should perhaps prevail over the Governor's order, when safety was being practiced.
From the religious viewpoint, One Christian friend and reader wrote this: "The Christian tradition recognizes that one should not "tempt G-d," or commit the sin of presumption, by unnecessarily engaging in a dangerous activity in anticipation that G-d will provide protection." One Rabbi and Jewish scholar discussed it this way: "We are taught that the protection and guarding of human life takes precedence over all...I frame it in the positive...It is a Mitzvah to safeguard ourselves...We are doing a Mitzvah staying home." (A Mitzvah is a good deed, but one which our religion commands us to do.)
On the political front, the allegations of sexual assault against Joe Biden are getting greater coverage in the news. Unlike the allegations against Republicans, the media is mostly coming to the defense of Biden, as are Democratic politicians and rank and file Democrats. Commenting on the allegations of Tara Reade, one letter writer to the New York Times wrote this: "This is a species of vainglorious righteousness run amok, and does no honor to the principles the #MeToo movement has embraced...This is the moment to stand united for the greater good of the nation." The greater good being to defeat Trump, even if it means ignoring serious charges against Biden. Here's another letter writer: "For those of you who have been all-in to the #MeToo Movement but are now having trouble supporting Mr. Biden in light of Tara Reade's allegation of sexual assault (which Mr. Biden denies), can you handle being a hypocrite if it means getting Mr. Trump out of the White House? I say, yes, I am happy to be a hypocrite. Please join me." I appreciate the honesty. And the writer reflects what I have said in the blog about many on the left for years - the ends justify the means. The end is getting Trump out of office, even if the means is ignoring a woman's voice and justice for her (should the allegations be true).
The New York Times faced a dilemma with regards to the allegations. They hate Trump and are desperate to have a Democratic victory in November, and Biden is the likely Democratic nominee. But they have also been in the forefront of the #MeToo movement. In the paper's 5/1/20 editorial, they wrote this: "Americans deserve to know more about a sexual assault accusation against the likely Democratic nominee." Sounds good. But then this: "The Democratic National Committee should move to investigate the matter swiftly and thoroughly, with the full cooperation of the Biden campaign." So, have the Dems investigate their own presidential candidate? With the candidate's help? Hmmm. But DNC Chair Tom Perez made it clear that such an investigation will never happen: "Barack Obama trusted Joe Biden. I trust Joe Biden." Investigation over.
Bret Stephens, the former conservative Op-Ed writer in the Wall Street Journal, who switched to the New York Times after becoming a "never-Trumper," had an Op-Ed on the Tara Reade allegations the same day as the editorial. Stephens: "Being 'heard' is not, and should never be, the same as being believed. The entire difference between hearsay and proof, rumor and reason, mob rule and justice, lies in the distinction." Of course, he is correct; although Judge Kavanaugh got no such benefit of the doubt from the media and the left. Then, the Democrats were on the side of the Queen of Hearts (from Alice in Wonderland): "Sentence first - verdict afterwards." When Alice objected, the Queen shouted "Off with her head!" Indeed.
Monday, April 27, 2020
The Coronavirus Six Weeks Later - When to Reopen?
The numbers. As of late yesterday/early this morning, the US had 975,798 cases, with 54,941 deaths. New York is still the worst by far, with 293,354 cases and 22,275 deaths. Then New Jersey with 109,038 cases and 5,938 deaths, Massachusetts with 53,348 and 2,730 respectively, then Illinois with 41,777 and 1,874, California 42,688 and 1,695, Pennsylvania 41,697 and 1,804, and Michigan with 37,203 cases and 3,274 deaths. The number of deaths to date is approaching the number of deaths in the worst flu season of the past ten years - 2017 to 2018, when an estimated 61,000 people died in the US. And LA County, which has had 19,107 cases and 895 deaths reported this statistic late Saturday: out of the last 48 deaths, 37 of those people (77%) were over the age of 65. It is fairly clear which age group is at the most risk.
The 4/24/20 New York Times had an interesting chart on page 11 of that day's paper. It showed the death rate from the virus by state. Perhaps not surprisingly, the more densely populated states of the Northeast, which are generally smaller in size, have the highest death rates. Again, New York leads the way with 79 deaths per 100,000 people, New Jersey with 57, Connecticut with 43 and Massachusetts with 32. The worst of the Western states - all large in size but not necessarily population - was Washington with a low 9 deaths per 100,000 people. California, large in size and also the most populated of all the states, had 4 deaths per 100,000 people. Clearly, the large states make it easier for people to practice social distancing. Leading the Midwest was Michigan with 28 deaths per 100,000 people. In the South, Louisiana had 32 deaths per 100,000 people.
In the latest week's unemployment numbers, another 4.4 million people filed new claims. That brings the 5 week total to an astronomically high total of 26.4 million people. This is simply unprecedented. One reporter asked NY Governor Andrew Cuomo at one of his daily press briefings: "Is there a fundamental right to work if the government can't get me money when I need it?" Cuomo's reply: "You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker. Do it tomorrow." That was an unfair and callous reply. Clearly, people are not going to qualify overnight to become a doctor or nurse or paramedic or firefighter or police officer. And I do not believe enough retail jobs are opening to employ 26.4 million people.
So, when will it be time to reopen the country? Five days ago, The Hill reported on a Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken from 4/15-4/21, with a margin of error of 6%. 72% of Americans were said to support keeping the stay at home orders until "doctors and public health officials say it's safe." Broken down by party, 88% of Democrats agreed, 70% of Independents and 55% of Republicans. An AP/NORC poll had similar numbers for Democrats, with 63% strongly agreeing to keep stay at home orders (except for essential workers), and 28% somewhat agreeing - for a total of 91%. For Republicans, 36% strongly agree and 35% somewhat agree - for a total of 71%.
The flu of 1957-58 was a particularly devastating year. It is estimated that 25% of the population was infected, and that 116,000 people died. Yet, nothing was shut down. The country remained open for business - the people's business, whatever that was. But the question remains, when we do reopen - and some states are starting to do so - what will it look like? Will there be a new normal? Will greeting someone with a handshake ever return? What about dining out? Some restaurants say they will check people for a fever before admitting them. Tables may be fewer. Those with booths may have plexiglass between the booths. A company that designs airplane interiors is already working on a redesign of the seating layout, which may also include plexiglass between the seats.
The hospitality industry, hit hard by the coronavirus, already has new policies in place. Fox News reported that anyone entering the 4 Seasons Hotel in New York City will have a temperature check. Check-in and check-out will be done virtually. Each guest will be provided with 3 large bags for dirty linen. Room service - gone. The restaurant, bar and coffee shop - closed. Those policies certainly do not entice me to think about a trip or hotel stay. The 4 Seasons will have pre-made box meals. And rooms will be deep cleaned between guests. Hilton apparently will keep rooms vacant for 3 days after a guest checks out. What about concerts and sporting events? Will most seats remain empty in order to allow for 6 feet of social distancing between people?
Will retail outlets, supermarkets and big box stores limit the number of people allowed to be inside at the same time. So, will we now wait in line to shop, as has already happened in many places. One woman who has a work-out business said she was inclined to continue to run her business virtually. Many white collar jobs can be done as well remotely as in an office. Will an increasing number of businesses see an advantage to allowing their employees to work at home? It can certainly save on office overhead. On the other hand, my daughter has been working at home for 5 weeks now, and her company and customers seem to have some difficulty in distinguishing between work hours and non-work hours. When we venture out into the world, will a mask be the newest mandatory apparel item in everyone's wardrobe? And will we ever step closer than 6 feet to another person in public again?
According to Fox, there was a study of 5700 patients hospitalized at a Northwell Health System hospital. The study, as reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association, found that of the Covid 19 patients, 94% had at least one other disease or illness. The median age of the patients was 63 years old. 53% had hypertension, 42% were obese, and 32% had diabetes. So, when we reopen, will there be actual orders compelling people in the high risk groups to remain at home? Absent such orders, will those in the high risk groups who get sick and infect others, then be legally responsible?
To end on a hopeful note, we have a story out of UMass Memorial Health Care. It was reported that a gravely ill patient with the coronavirus, improved within a few hours of getting a blood plasma transfusion from a patient who recovered from Covid 19. Let's hope for more of that, and for less cases overall.
The 4/24/20 New York Times had an interesting chart on page 11 of that day's paper. It showed the death rate from the virus by state. Perhaps not surprisingly, the more densely populated states of the Northeast, which are generally smaller in size, have the highest death rates. Again, New York leads the way with 79 deaths per 100,000 people, New Jersey with 57, Connecticut with 43 and Massachusetts with 32. The worst of the Western states - all large in size but not necessarily population - was Washington with a low 9 deaths per 100,000 people. California, large in size and also the most populated of all the states, had 4 deaths per 100,000 people. Clearly, the large states make it easier for people to practice social distancing. Leading the Midwest was Michigan with 28 deaths per 100,000 people. In the South, Louisiana had 32 deaths per 100,000 people.
In the latest week's unemployment numbers, another 4.4 million people filed new claims. That brings the 5 week total to an astronomically high total of 26.4 million people. This is simply unprecedented. One reporter asked NY Governor Andrew Cuomo at one of his daily press briefings: "Is there a fundamental right to work if the government can't get me money when I need it?" Cuomo's reply: "You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker. Do it tomorrow." That was an unfair and callous reply. Clearly, people are not going to qualify overnight to become a doctor or nurse or paramedic or firefighter or police officer. And I do not believe enough retail jobs are opening to employ 26.4 million people.
So, when will it be time to reopen the country? Five days ago, The Hill reported on a Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken from 4/15-4/21, with a margin of error of 6%. 72% of Americans were said to support keeping the stay at home orders until "doctors and public health officials say it's safe." Broken down by party, 88% of Democrats agreed, 70% of Independents and 55% of Republicans. An AP/NORC poll had similar numbers for Democrats, with 63% strongly agreeing to keep stay at home orders (except for essential workers), and 28% somewhat agreeing - for a total of 91%. For Republicans, 36% strongly agree and 35% somewhat agree - for a total of 71%.
The flu of 1957-58 was a particularly devastating year. It is estimated that 25% of the population was infected, and that 116,000 people died. Yet, nothing was shut down. The country remained open for business - the people's business, whatever that was. But the question remains, when we do reopen - and some states are starting to do so - what will it look like? Will there be a new normal? Will greeting someone with a handshake ever return? What about dining out? Some restaurants say they will check people for a fever before admitting them. Tables may be fewer. Those with booths may have plexiglass between the booths. A company that designs airplane interiors is already working on a redesign of the seating layout, which may also include plexiglass between the seats.
The hospitality industry, hit hard by the coronavirus, already has new policies in place. Fox News reported that anyone entering the 4 Seasons Hotel in New York City will have a temperature check. Check-in and check-out will be done virtually. Each guest will be provided with 3 large bags for dirty linen. Room service - gone. The restaurant, bar and coffee shop - closed. Those policies certainly do not entice me to think about a trip or hotel stay. The 4 Seasons will have pre-made box meals. And rooms will be deep cleaned between guests. Hilton apparently will keep rooms vacant for 3 days after a guest checks out. What about concerts and sporting events? Will most seats remain empty in order to allow for 6 feet of social distancing between people?
Will retail outlets, supermarkets and big box stores limit the number of people allowed to be inside at the same time. So, will we now wait in line to shop, as has already happened in many places. One woman who has a work-out business said she was inclined to continue to run her business virtually. Many white collar jobs can be done as well remotely as in an office. Will an increasing number of businesses see an advantage to allowing their employees to work at home? It can certainly save on office overhead. On the other hand, my daughter has been working at home for 5 weeks now, and her company and customers seem to have some difficulty in distinguishing between work hours and non-work hours. When we venture out into the world, will a mask be the newest mandatory apparel item in everyone's wardrobe? And will we ever step closer than 6 feet to another person in public again?
According to Fox, there was a study of 5700 patients hospitalized at a Northwell Health System hospital. The study, as reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association, found that of the Covid 19 patients, 94% had at least one other disease or illness. The median age of the patients was 63 years old. 53% had hypertension, 42% were obese, and 32% had diabetes. So, when we reopen, will there be actual orders compelling people in the high risk groups to remain at home? Absent such orders, will those in the high risk groups who get sick and infect others, then be legally responsible?
To end on a hopeful note, we have a story out of UMass Memorial Health Care. It was reported that a gravely ill patient with the coronavirus, improved within a few hours of getting a blood plasma transfusion from a patient who recovered from Covid 19. Let's hope for more of that, and for less cases overall.
Sunday, April 19, 2020
The Coronavirus Five Weeks Later - The Governors Have Their Say
First, the numbers. As of today, worldwide cases total 2,355,676, with 162,032 deaths. The US totals are 742,637 cases and 39,201 deaths. As of yesterday, New York still had the most cases and deaths: 236,732 and 17,671, respectively. Then New Jersey with 81,420 cases and 4,070 deaths, Massachusetts with 34,402 cases and 1,404 deaths, Pennsylvania with 31,069 cases and 836 deaths, Michigan with 30,791 cases and 2,308 deaths and Illinois with 29,160 cases and 1,259 deaths. However, California numbers as of last night were 30,802 cases and 1,148 deaths, with Los Angeles County alone accounting for 12,021 cases and 576 deaths.
Meanwhile, in the prior week another 5.2 million people applied for unemployment, bringing the total for the last 4 weeks to about 22 million. That is more people than live in 48 of the 50 states (not combined, obviously), with the exceptions being Texas with 29 million people and California with nearly 40 million people. It is, frankly, quite scary, and helps to explain why people have been protesting in a push to reopen society. While we are still discussing numbers, here are some interesting poll numbers from the Pew Research Center. The poll was conducted from 4/7 through 4/12, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%. 66% of those polled feared that states would reopen too soon, while 32% worried that states would not open soon enough.
When broken down by party we see quite a divergence of views. 81% of Democrats and those leaning Democrat are worried that things would open up too soon. However, Republicans and those leaning Republican are split fairly evenly - 51% worried that things would open too soon, with 48% worried not soon enough. Some in the mainstream media were of the opinion that Republicans just care more about business. I do not think that is it at all. I do think Republicans are more likely to think in terms of liberty. I also think Democrats are more likely to be fearful - whether it is fear of global warming to fear of second hand smoke to fear of offensive language (and needing safe spaces).
Early last week President Trump said this: "When somebody's president of the United states, the authority is total." The comment was in reference to opening up the country, and was clearly incorrect. By mid-week he reversed himself, acknowledging that 50 governors would be making those decisions for their respective states. It is well accepted that states have a general police power. Certainly, the President has the authority to enforce federal laws. But Congress did not pass any legislation giving Trump such broad powers. Even if they had, we also know that the federal government has no inherent power to force states to comply with federal law (supremacy and related issues aside). When former Alabama Governor George Wallace stood at the doors to the University of Alabama, with state troopers at his side, it was with the intent of blocking two black students from attending. President Kennedy federalized the National Guard and ordered them to allow those black students to enter. In that case, Kennedy was enforcing the federal Constitution and federal statutory law.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (Dem.) said he would challenge Trump in court if "he's going to force this state...to do something that is reckless or irresponsible, that could endanger human life." Michigan's Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Dem.) imposed what some felt were overly excessive restrictions, such as not being able to travel to a second home within the state, and not allowing big box stores to sell certain items she deemed to be non-essential. Those items included seeds, paint, furniture, carpeting and flooring. Following the protests in Michigan, the state's Attorney General went straight to the race card: "I just can't hear about one more black health care worker, police officer or bus driver dies, while getting a barrage of complaints from white folks outraged because they can't go golfing."
South Dakota's Governor, Kristi Noem (Rep.), has declined to issue a state-wide stay at home order. Noem: "I believe in our freedoms and liberties. What I've seen across the country is so many people give up their liberties for just a little bit of security and they don't have to do that." In a state of just under 885,000 people (as of 2019) they have had 1300 cases of the virus and 7 deaths. Tucker Carlson of Fox News had an interesting exchange with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem.). After pointing out that 15 men were arrested for attending a synagogue service, Carlson asked this: "The Bill of Rights...protects Americans' rights - enshrines their right to practice their religion as they see fit...by what authority did you nullify the Bill of Rights in issuing this order?" Murphy: "I wasn't thinking of the Bill of Rights when we did this...we looked at all the data and the science and it says people have to stay away from each other." He further added that he did first consult with religious leaders, including the Archbishop of Newark.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott (Rep.) expects that by Friday all retail outlets can be open for pick up or delivery, but no in-store shopping. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) ordered that as of Saturday 5 a.m. certain outdoor activities could resume, including golfing, fishing, boating, hiking and hunting - but still follow social distancing guidelines of staying six feet apart. California Governor Gavin Newsom was the first of the governors to issue a statewide stay-at-home order, having done so on March 19. Newsom issued six guidelines that he will use to assist in determining when and how much of the state should reopen. Included is the ability to monitor the infection, prevent infection, ability of the hospitals to handle new cases, development of therapeutic treatments, the ability of schools and businesses to maintain social distancing, and the ability to reimpose certain restrictive orders. "Normal, it will not be until we have had herd immunity and a vaccine. You may be having dinner with the waiter wearing gloves and maybe a face mask...where your temperature is checked before walking in. These are likely scenarios."
Over the past 100 years or so we have seen a push toward looking to the federal government to solve all of the country's problems. That push, of course, has come mainly from Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media. Republicans have tended to argue for "states' rights." It is interesting, therefore, to see this push back from Democrats now against the federal government when it comes to deciding what is best for each state, and when and under what conditions they should reopen. It is not necessary to agree with this or that particular governor to be reminded of the brilliance of our Founding Fathers in setting up a republic of states.
Meanwhile, in the prior week another 5.2 million people applied for unemployment, bringing the total for the last 4 weeks to about 22 million. That is more people than live in 48 of the 50 states (not combined, obviously), with the exceptions being Texas with 29 million people and California with nearly 40 million people. It is, frankly, quite scary, and helps to explain why people have been protesting in a push to reopen society. While we are still discussing numbers, here are some interesting poll numbers from the Pew Research Center. The poll was conducted from 4/7 through 4/12, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%. 66% of those polled feared that states would reopen too soon, while 32% worried that states would not open soon enough.
When broken down by party we see quite a divergence of views. 81% of Democrats and those leaning Democrat are worried that things would open up too soon. However, Republicans and those leaning Republican are split fairly evenly - 51% worried that things would open too soon, with 48% worried not soon enough. Some in the mainstream media were of the opinion that Republicans just care more about business. I do not think that is it at all. I do think Republicans are more likely to think in terms of liberty. I also think Democrats are more likely to be fearful - whether it is fear of global warming to fear of second hand smoke to fear of offensive language (and needing safe spaces).
Early last week President Trump said this: "When somebody's president of the United states, the authority is total." The comment was in reference to opening up the country, and was clearly incorrect. By mid-week he reversed himself, acknowledging that 50 governors would be making those decisions for their respective states. It is well accepted that states have a general police power. Certainly, the President has the authority to enforce federal laws. But Congress did not pass any legislation giving Trump such broad powers. Even if they had, we also know that the federal government has no inherent power to force states to comply with federal law (supremacy and related issues aside). When former Alabama Governor George Wallace stood at the doors to the University of Alabama, with state troopers at his side, it was with the intent of blocking two black students from attending. President Kennedy federalized the National Guard and ordered them to allow those black students to enter. In that case, Kennedy was enforcing the federal Constitution and federal statutory law.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (Dem.) said he would challenge Trump in court if "he's going to force this state...to do something that is reckless or irresponsible, that could endanger human life." Michigan's Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Dem.) imposed what some felt were overly excessive restrictions, such as not being able to travel to a second home within the state, and not allowing big box stores to sell certain items she deemed to be non-essential. Those items included seeds, paint, furniture, carpeting and flooring. Following the protests in Michigan, the state's Attorney General went straight to the race card: "I just can't hear about one more black health care worker, police officer or bus driver dies, while getting a barrage of complaints from white folks outraged because they can't go golfing."
South Dakota's Governor, Kristi Noem (Rep.), has declined to issue a state-wide stay at home order. Noem: "I believe in our freedoms and liberties. What I've seen across the country is so many people give up their liberties for just a little bit of security and they don't have to do that." In a state of just under 885,000 people (as of 2019) they have had 1300 cases of the virus and 7 deaths. Tucker Carlson of Fox News had an interesting exchange with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem.). After pointing out that 15 men were arrested for attending a synagogue service, Carlson asked this: "The Bill of Rights...protects Americans' rights - enshrines their right to practice their religion as they see fit...by what authority did you nullify the Bill of Rights in issuing this order?" Murphy: "I wasn't thinking of the Bill of Rights when we did this...we looked at all the data and the science and it says people have to stay away from each other." He further added that he did first consult with religious leaders, including the Archbishop of Newark.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott (Rep.) expects that by Friday all retail outlets can be open for pick up or delivery, but no in-store shopping. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) ordered that as of Saturday 5 a.m. certain outdoor activities could resume, including golfing, fishing, boating, hiking and hunting - but still follow social distancing guidelines of staying six feet apart. California Governor Gavin Newsom was the first of the governors to issue a statewide stay-at-home order, having done so on March 19. Newsom issued six guidelines that he will use to assist in determining when and how much of the state should reopen. Included is the ability to monitor the infection, prevent infection, ability of the hospitals to handle new cases, development of therapeutic treatments, the ability of schools and businesses to maintain social distancing, and the ability to reimpose certain restrictive orders. "Normal, it will not be until we have had herd immunity and a vaccine. You may be having dinner with the waiter wearing gloves and maybe a face mask...where your temperature is checked before walking in. These are likely scenarios."
Over the past 100 years or so we have seen a push toward looking to the federal government to solve all of the country's problems. That push, of course, has come mainly from Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media. Republicans have tended to argue for "states' rights." It is interesting, therefore, to see this push back from Democrats now against the federal government when it comes to deciding what is best for each state, and when and under what conditions they should reopen. It is not necessary to agree with this or that particular governor to be reminded of the brilliance of our Founding Fathers in setting up a republic of states.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
The Coronavirus - Four Weeks Later
It is hard to believe that it has now been 4 weeks that we have avoided any personal interactions. My wife and I mostly stay at home. Over the last four weeks we have gone into the office periodically, but have not allowed another soul in - not other staff, not clients and not vendors. No one.
The numbers. There were a total of 547,681 cases of coronavirus, with 21,692 deaths in the US, as reported earlier today on Fox. The states with the most cases are New York with 188,694, and 9,385 deaths; New Jersey with 61,850 cases and 2,350 deaths; Massachusetts with 25,475 cases and 756 deaths; Michigan with 24,638 cases and 1,487 deaths; and Pennsylvania with 22,833 cases and 507 deaths. States with less cases but higher numbers of deaths include Louisiana, 840; Illinois, 720; and California, 609. Some are postulating that millions may have been infected but never tested.
According to Fox, the most populous county in the country - Los Angeles County - has "extended its safer-at-home and business-closures orders through 5/15/20." Also according to Fox, Los Angeles County has 8,873 cases, with 265 deaths. Of course, all numbers in this and the preceding paragraph are already outdated. NBC also reported that 48% of employees in the County either lost their jobs or had their hours reduced. Total jobless claims for just the last 3 weeks in the USA now equal a whopping 16,780,000. That number is approximately the total number of people living in our four largest cities - New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.
But not everyone is fixated on the coronavirus. The police chief of Seattle Tweeted this: "Washington State is no place for hate...hate has no place in our community. Report hate, including racist name calling, to 911. We are here to help, and will respond to investigate." And this: "Even racist name-calling should be reported to police. If you aren't sure if a hate crime occurred, call 911. We are here to help." Call 911 for racist name-calling? Seriously? Racist name-calling may be exceedingly bad behavior, but - absent a threat - it is definitely not a crime. It is, in fact, protected speech. At a time when the 911 emergency system is likely overburdened already, you want people to report name-calling? If I am not careful I would be inclined to call this police chief a name - but not based on race; no, it would be based on stupidity.
Speaking of stupidity, somebody(s) decided it would be a good idea to see if they could break the record for traveling by car from New York to Los Angeles. Given our near empty roads, they succeeded. It only took 26 hours and 38 minutes. Assuming they traveled the shortest route, they would had to have averaged 103 miles per hour. If they want to risk their own lives, that's their business. But there are still others on the roads, including many first responders out there trying to help others without idiots putting them at risk.
One letter writer or Op-Ed writer (I do not remember which) expressed the frustration that many of us are feeling, but did so in a way that may only be described as overblown: "I'm unable to get ready to celebrate freedom when I feel imprisoned in my own home." The celebration of freedom was in reference to Passover, when we Jews celebrate our departure from Egypt, when we went from being slaves to a free people. But "imprisoned" is too forceful a word. For most of us, our so-called imprisonment includes having the equivalent of a nearly unlimited library in our own homes - as long as we have internet access. Most of us have TV, often with numerous channels from which to choose old and new TV shows, and old and new movies. Many have yards allowing them to sit outside, weather permitting. And we are able to go for walks, jog or ride a bike. I get it. We cannot just pick up and go wherever we want whenever we want. It is frustrating. But it is not prison. And maybe we will all appreciate just how free a people we are once society returns to some semblance of normalcy.
I was not alone in feeling the pain of that young woman in Pennsylvania getting a citation for over $200 for the simple act of driving her car. (See the prior post.) Senator Ted Cruz had some advice for the authorities in Pennsylvania: "Resist authoritarianism and don't abuse power. Driving a car alone is not a public health threat." And conservative political commentator and author, Mark Levin, called it "outrageous fascistic behavior."
A Fox News poll conducted from April 4 through April 7, found Trump's approval rating at 49%, with 89% of Republicans approving. Trump's coronavirus team all got positive approval ratings, with Dr. Fauci getting 80%, Dr. Birx at 62%, Vice President Pence at 52% and President Trump at 51%. 57% agreed that the fight against the virus is going in the right direction, with 30% saying we are going in the wrong direction. And while 56% say that they approve of the Federal government's response, a much larger 77% approve of their state government's handling of the virus. But it seems to me that is how it should be. We should always feel that our more local state government is better at responding to the needs of residents than the more distant Federal bureaucracy. Still, a full 80% favor a nationwide stay-in-place order.
There was an interesting question posed by Fox, regarding how the virus may have affected people's interactions with others. 34% found people to be more friendly and compassionate, while a nearly equal number, 35%, found there to be no difference. And 21% felt that others were less friendly.
President Trump just recently declared a major disaster in Wyoming. The result was a first in US history, with a major disaster being declared simultaneously in all 50 states. The New York Times reported yesterday that the President is being pushed by "bankers, corporate executives and industrialists" to reopen the country, while "the medical experts beg for more time to curb the coronavirus." Trump: "I'm going to have to make a decision, and I only hope to G-d that it's the right decision." But the Times went on to tell us that "the decision on when and how to reopen is not entirely Mr. Trump's to make because he never ordered it closed. The stay-at-home edicts that have kept the vast bulk of Americans indoors were issued by governors state by state." So, let's pray to G-d that all our political leaders make the right decisions. And that a vaccine and anti-viral treatment are speedily developed.
The numbers. There were a total of 547,681 cases of coronavirus, with 21,692 deaths in the US, as reported earlier today on Fox. The states with the most cases are New York with 188,694, and 9,385 deaths; New Jersey with 61,850 cases and 2,350 deaths; Massachusetts with 25,475 cases and 756 deaths; Michigan with 24,638 cases and 1,487 deaths; and Pennsylvania with 22,833 cases and 507 deaths. States with less cases but higher numbers of deaths include Louisiana, 840; Illinois, 720; and California, 609. Some are postulating that millions may have been infected but never tested.
According to Fox, the most populous county in the country - Los Angeles County - has "extended its safer-at-home and business-closures orders through 5/15/20." Also according to Fox, Los Angeles County has 8,873 cases, with 265 deaths. Of course, all numbers in this and the preceding paragraph are already outdated. NBC also reported that 48% of employees in the County either lost their jobs or had their hours reduced. Total jobless claims for just the last 3 weeks in the USA now equal a whopping 16,780,000. That number is approximately the total number of people living in our four largest cities - New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.
But not everyone is fixated on the coronavirus. The police chief of Seattle Tweeted this: "Washington State is no place for hate...hate has no place in our community. Report hate, including racist name calling, to 911. We are here to help, and will respond to investigate." And this: "Even racist name-calling should be reported to police. If you aren't sure if a hate crime occurred, call 911. We are here to help." Call 911 for racist name-calling? Seriously? Racist name-calling may be exceedingly bad behavior, but - absent a threat - it is definitely not a crime. It is, in fact, protected speech. At a time when the 911 emergency system is likely overburdened already, you want people to report name-calling? If I am not careful I would be inclined to call this police chief a name - but not based on race; no, it would be based on stupidity.
Speaking of stupidity, somebody(s) decided it would be a good idea to see if they could break the record for traveling by car from New York to Los Angeles. Given our near empty roads, they succeeded. It only took 26 hours and 38 minutes. Assuming they traveled the shortest route, they would had to have averaged 103 miles per hour. If they want to risk their own lives, that's their business. But there are still others on the roads, including many first responders out there trying to help others without idiots putting them at risk.
One letter writer or Op-Ed writer (I do not remember which) expressed the frustration that many of us are feeling, but did so in a way that may only be described as overblown: "I'm unable to get ready to celebrate freedom when I feel imprisoned in my own home." The celebration of freedom was in reference to Passover, when we Jews celebrate our departure from Egypt, when we went from being slaves to a free people. But "imprisoned" is too forceful a word. For most of us, our so-called imprisonment includes having the equivalent of a nearly unlimited library in our own homes - as long as we have internet access. Most of us have TV, often with numerous channels from which to choose old and new TV shows, and old and new movies. Many have yards allowing them to sit outside, weather permitting. And we are able to go for walks, jog or ride a bike. I get it. We cannot just pick up and go wherever we want whenever we want. It is frustrating. But it is not prison. And maybe we will all appreciate just how free a people we are once society returns to some semblance of normalcy.
I was not alone in feeling the pain of that young woman in Pennsylvania getting a citation for over $200 for the simple act of driving her car. (See the prior post.) Senator Ted Cruz had some advice for the authorities in Pennsylvania: "Resist authoritarianism and don't abuse power. Driving a car alone is not a public health threat." And conservative political commentator and author, Mark Levin, called it "outrageous fascistic behavior."
A Fox News poll conducted from April 4 through April 7, found Trump's approval rating at 49%, with 89% of Republicans approving. Trump's coronavirus team all got positive approval ratings, with Dr. Fauci getting 80%, Dr. Birx at 62%, Vice President Pence at 52% and President Trump at 51%. 57% agreed that the fight against the virus is going in the right direction, with 30% saying we are going in the wrong direction. And while 56% say that they approve of the Federal government's response, a much larger 77% approve of their state government's handling of the virus. But it seems to me that is how it should be. We should always feel that our more local state government is better at responding to the needs of residents than the more distant Federal bureaucracy. Still, a full 80% favor a nationwide stay-in-place order.
There was an interesting question posed by Fox, regarding how the virus may have affected people's interactions with others. 34% found people to be more friendly and compassionate, while a nearly equal number, 35%, found there to be no difference. And 21% felt that others were less friendly.
President Trump just recently declared a major disaster in Wyoming. The result was a first in US history, with a major disaster being declared simultaneously in all 50 states. The New York Times reported yesterday that the President is being pushed by "bankers, corporate executives and industrialists" to reopen the country, while "the medical experts beg for more time to curb the coronavirus." Trump: "I'm going to have to make a decision, and I only hope to G-d that it's the right decision." But the Times went on to tell us that "the decision on when and how to reopen is not entirely Mr. Trump's to make because he never ordered it closed. The stay-at-home edicts that have kept the vast bulk of Americans indoors were issued by governors state by state." So, let's pray to G-d that all our political leaders make the right decisions. And that a vaccine and anti-viral treatment are speedily developed.
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