Trump's MOU With Iran - Part III (I Can't Believe It)

Paragraph 2 provides that the US and Iran "undertake" to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  That's certainly consistent with Paragraph 1, which provides for the "immediate and permanent termination of military options on all fronts."  If regime change was ever on the table, it's not now.  And forget about telling the Iranian people that "help is on the way."  Remember that?

Paragraph 4 of the MOU provides that immediately upon signing, the US will begin to remove its blockade.  So, there is nothing that Iran must do first to get that benefit.  Paragraph 8 says that Iran "reaffirms" it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons.  In other words, Iran is reaffirming what they already promised, yet violated, as they were well on their way to making nuclear weapons.  Basically, Iran is saying we promise again, but we lied the first time and mostly got away with it, so we're lying again.  And it looks like they can get away with it again.  

Paragraph 9 says the two sides will maintain the status quo.  The US will not impose any new sanctions nor will the US deploy additional troops in the area.  And Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program.  What?  Assuming all of Iran's enriched uranium is not buried deep beneath a mountain, and at least some of the material is accessible, that means Iran would likely be able to make weapons grade uranium within a few days.  Unless, of course, all their centrifuges were in fact destroyed.  Hard to know, as Iran still manages to launch missiles at other countries.  

If stopping Iran from obtaining nukes was the highest priority, why isn't removing all of Iran's enriched uranium the top priority?  Which should be removed immediately.  No?  Anybody?  Trump now seems to have backed off from that, saying all the uranium is buried under so much rubble that Iran won't be able to access it.  Can we really be sure of that?  Why doesn't the deal provide for immediate access by the US to take the enriched uranium out?  Whatever happened to Iran not being allowed to keep any enriched uranium?     

Everybody remember when Trump said, back on March 2, "Our objectives are clear.  First, we are destroying Iran's missile capabilities...and their capacity to produce brand new ones."  Defense Secretary Hegseth repeated that.  As did Press Secretary Leavitt.  Fast forward to now.  Trump:  "If other countries have them (ballistic missiles), it's a little bit unfair for them not to have some."  WHAT?  Other countries are not launching ballistic missiles into neighboring countries.  That is like saying that when the police and SWAT arrive at a shootout with their automatic rifles, it's just unfair that the criminals do not have them also.  Has Trump completely lost it?  It appears so.

Then we have this doozy by Trump:  "Missiles aren't the problem.  They hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet."  Perhaps that explains why there is nothing in the MOU about ballistic missiles.  But do I really need to explain to Trump that Israelis have to constantly run to shelters when missiles are incoming?  Do I have to explain that people are killed and injured by missiles?  And do I really need to explain that this is not a situation that calls for some misguided sense of equality.  Not when Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism.   

Meanwhile, Iran issued this statement today:  "It is hereby announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to vessel traffic; it is noted that this first step is a response to the enemy's breach of promise, and if the aggression continues, further steps will be planned and taken to force the enemy to comply with its obligaions."  What is the alleged breach?  Hezbollah launched numerous missiles into Israel, and Israel had the temerity to fight back.  But recall what Part II of this blog post said - Paragraph 1 of the MOU "ensured" the "territorial integrity of Lebanon."  It did not ensure the territorial integrity of Israel.

As I said in Part II, Iran will object to Israel having troops in southern Lebanon, and will certainly object to Israel defending itself against Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon.  And just who is Iran referring to as the "enemy"?  Can't be Israel, as they are not a signatory to the MOU.  It appears that Iran is blaming the US for not preventing Israel from defending itself.  Just how can Trump tolerate Iran continuing to refer to the United States as the "enemy"?  That attitude does not suggest that Iran is sincere about abiding by any agreement.  Which, to anybody with knowledge of Iran's actions over the last 47 years, would be - should be - obvious.  Iran cannot be trusted to abide by any deal!  

Why did Trump do this deal?  Some thoughts in Part IV.  (Maybe Part V.)     

Trump's MOU With Iran - Part II (It's Even Worse Than I Thought)

The very first paragraph of this 14 point (14 paragraphs) plan says there will be an immediate and permanent end of military operations on all fronts.  Furthermore, it ensures "the territorial integrity of Lebanon."  Paragraph 14 provides that the final deal will be "endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.  

Everyone needs to understand the significance of that.  Israel currently has forces in southern Lebanon because of the nonstop rocket and missile attacks being fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon.  So, first of all, the above provision does nothing other than protect Hezbollah - a terrorist organization .  Second, as the territorial integrity of Lebanon (Hezbollah) is "ensured," that means either signatory, the US or Iran, would have the right (arguably the obligation) to forcefully remove those Israeli troops.

Paragraph 14 then says that the terms of the final deal (which will include Lebanon absent a change) may also be enforced by the UN Security Council.  The Security Council would have the options of imposing sanctions on Israel, and even sending in a UN "peacekeeping" force to remove the Israeli forces.

Iran wanted to make sure that their terrorist proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah) was protected.  And Trump agreed.  Trump agreed to protect a Foreign Terrorist Organization, so designated by our State Department.

Anybody also notice one glaring omission?  Trump did not insist on protecting the territorial integrity of Israel.  Israel has been hit by hundreds, if not thousands, of rockets and missiles in the last several months.  By Hezbollah in Lebanon.  By Hamas in Gaza.  By the Houthis in Yemen.  And by Iran.

Yet, Trump chose to protect a designated terrorist organization over our best ally in the Middle East, and arguably our best ally in the world.  Cool.

Trump's MOU with Iran - Part I

Some details have been leaked about the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between Trump and Iran.  Neither side has yet confirmed the accuracy of those leaks, however.  From what I've seen, it does not appear to be any better than Obama's JCPOA.  I have been following the issue of Iranian nukes since shortly after the turn of this century.  Negotiations began with the Europeans, as the US had no direct contact with Iran at the time.  The US was involved behind the scenes; and later on was openly involved.  The entire time - over 20 years - Iran has lied, failed to comply with any agreement, stalled, asked for more time, raised new issues requiring even more time.  To put it simply, Iran feigns interest in a deal, all the while building up their nuclear facilities, and playing the West for fools.

It looked like Trump would be different.  Sure, the US and Israeli militaries destroyed much of Iran's military.  But clearly not all of it, as they have continued to launch missiles at Israel and the Gulf states.  And top Iranian leaders have been killed.  But this "deal" sure looks like Iran won this war.  Let's take a look at the terms.  First off, all fighting stops - including Israel with Lebanon.  We Jews know what that means - Israel may not fight back when Hezbollah continues to launch rockets and missiles into Israel.  There are tens of thousands of Israelis afraid to return to their homes in northern Israel because of the nonstop rockets and missiles coming in from Lebanon.  

Isn't that the goal of Israel's enemies - slowly but surely make increasing parts of Israel uninhabitable by the Jewish people.  Hezbollah can reach the major population centers of central Israel as well.  Should Israel just sit back and take it?  Israel has had to send troops into southern Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah.  Iran says those troops need to leave Lebanon.  In case anyone had any doubt about who really controls Lebanon, there it is - Hezbollah does, and Iran controls Hezbollah.  Otherwise, what business is it of Iran's about what happens in distant Lebanon, nearly 1000 miles away.

Here are Trump's latest comments on Lebanon.  "Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long and too many people are being killed...They should have been able to do the job faster.  It just goes on forever.  And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that's the deal with Iran."  Well, President Trump, why have you capitulated to Iran by letting them dictate what happens between Lebanon and Israel?  Trump:  "Without me, there'd be no Israel, because no other president was willing to do what what I did."  He went on that Iran was "two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon" and would have used it against Israel.  Maybe.  And I have expressed my gratitude for President Trump doing what he has done.  But, telling our closest friend and ally in the Middle East to stand down while the rockets and missiles keep flying is taking the side of Iran - which has been the sworn enemy of the United States for 47 years.  

Instead of allowing Israel to deal with the problem of Hezbollah, Trump suggests that Syria handle it.  I would ask Trump if he would defer to another country when it comes to the protection of the USA.  Obviously, he would not.  Then don't ask Israel to do so.  

This deal provides for a 60 day period of further talks.  Yes, Iran says they agree to never build a nuclear bomb.  Does anyone in their right mind believe that that this Islamist regime, sworn to the destruction of the West, gives a damn about the words on a piece of paper?  This promise has been made by Iran before.  Recall their secret facilities with ongoing nuclear development?  Recall that Iran said all they wanted was nuclear power for civilian purposes?  Then why were they enriching uranium to 60%, just days shy from being able to obtain weapons grade uranium.  Civilian use would never be more than 20% enrichment.  I have zero doubt that Iran will use this 60 day talking period to continue their enrichment of their nuclear material to weapons grade.  

Trump:  "They're (Iran) not going to acquire a nuclear weapon.  If they do, all hell will rain down on them."  First of all, attacking a nuclear power becomes much more problematic.  Because if they feel threatened existentially, that might tempt them to use whatever nukes they developed.  Second, earlier this year Trump assured the Iranian people that help was on the way.  He seemed to want to free the Iranian people from the oppressive Islamist regime.  But I guess that promise has been forgotten.  The people did protest - but tens of thousands were killed.  The Iranian people are obviously reluctant to engage in further protests, absent the United States or another power supplying the people with the neceassary armaments to actually fight the regime.  I am unaware of Trump providing that war materiel.   

And just what will Trump do if Israel continues to defend itself from the Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks?  It's certainly an interesting question.  The bigger questions are these:  why does it appear that Trump is now willing to let the Islamist regime remain in power?  Iran continues to refer to the US as the "enemy."  How is that the basis of any deal?  Iran may be getting even more money than the JCPOA under Obama provided.  I will discuss that and other issues in the next posts.  But, as of now, it is no surprise that Iran believes they won this war.  Because maybe they did.