Some details have been leaked about the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between Trump and Iran. Neither side has yet confirmed the accuracy of those leaks, however. From what I've seen, it does not appear to be any better than Obama's JCPOA. I have been following the issue of Iranian nukes since shortly after the turn of this century. Negotiations began with the Europeans, as the US had no direct contact with Iran at the time. The US was involved behind the scenes; and later on was openly involved. The entire time - over 20 years - Iran has lied, failed to comply with any agreement, stalled, asked for more time, raised new issues requiring even more time. To put it simply, Iran feigns interest in a deal, all the while building up their nuclear facilities, and playing the West for fools.
It looked like Trump would be different. Sure, the US and Israeli militaries destroyed much of Iran's military. But clearly not all of it, as they have continued to launch missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. And top Iranian leaders have been killed. But this "deal" sure looks like Iran won this war. Let's take a look at the terms. First off, all fighting stops - including Israel with Lebanon. We Jews know what that means - Israel may not fight back when Hezbollah continues to launch rockets and missiles into Israel. There are tens of thousands of Israelis afraid to return to their homes in northern Israel because of the nonstop rockets and missiles coming in from Lebanon.
Isn't that the goal of Israel's enemies - slowly but surely make increasing parts of Israel uninhabitable by the Jewish people. Hezbollah can reach the major population centers of central Israel as well. Should Israel just sit back and take it? Israel has had to send troops into southern Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah. Iran says those troops need to leave Lebanon. In case anyone had any doubt about who really controls Lebanon, there it is - Hezbollah does, and Iran controls Hezbollah. Otherwise, what business is it of Iran's about what happens in distant Lebanon, nearly 1000 miles away.
Here are Trump's latest comments on Lebanon. "Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long and too many people are being killed...They should have been able to do the job faster. It just goes on forever. And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that's the deal with Iran." Well, President Trump, why have you capitulated to Iran by letting them dictate what happens between Lebanon and Israel? Trump: "Without me, there'd be no Israel, because no other president was willing to do what what I did." He went on that Iran was "two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon" and would have used it against Israel. Maybe. And I have expressed my gratitude for President Trump doing what he has done. But, telling our closest friend and ally in the Middle East to stand down while the rockets and missiles keep flying is taking the side of Iran - which has been the sworn enemy of the United States for 47 years.
Instead of allowing Israel to deal with the problem of Hezbollah, Trump suggests that Syria handle it. I would ask Trump if he would defer to another country when it comes to the protection of the USA. Obviously, he would not. Then don't ask Israel to do so.
This deal provides for a 60 day period of further talks. Yes, Iran says they agree to never build a nuclear bomb. Does anyone in their right mind believe that that this Islamist regime, sworn to the destruction of the West, gives a damn about the words on a piece of paper? This promise has been made by Iran before. Recall their secret facilities with ongoing nuclear development? Recall that Iran said all they wanted was nuclear power for civilian purposes? Then why were they enriching uranium to 60%, just days shy from being able to obtain weapons grade uranium. Civilian use would never be more than 20% enrichment. I have zero doubt that Iran will use this 60 day talking period to continue their enrichment of their nuclear material to weapons grade.
Trump: "They're (Iran) not going to acquire a nuclear weapon. If they do, all hell will rain down on them." First of all, attacking a nuclear power becomes much more problematic. Because if they feel threatened existentially, that might tempt them to use whatever nukes they developed. Second, earlier this year Trump assured the Iranian people that help was on the way. He seemed to want to free the Iranian people from the oppressive Islamist regime. But I guess that promise has been forgotten. The people did protest - but tens of thousands were killed. The Iranian people are obviously reluctant to engage in further protests, absent the United States or another power supplying the people with the neceassary armaments to actually fight the regime. I am unaware of Trump providing that war materiel.
And just what will Trump do if Israel continues to defend itself from the Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks? It's certainly an interesting question. The bigger questions are these: why does it appear that Trump is now willing to let the Islamist regime remain in power? Iran continues to refer to the US as the "enemy." How is that the basis of any deal? Iran may be getting even more money than the JCPOA under Obama provided. I will discuss that and other issues in the next posts. But, as of now, it is no surprise that Iran believes they won this war. Because maybe they did.
