The Coronavirus Nine Weeks Later - Did the New York Times Really Publish That?

Some numbers. In the week ending May 9, another 2,981,000 people applied for unemployment. That brings the eight week total to 36,500,000 people. Absolutely frightening. From February to March, retail sales fell 8.3%. From March to April, sales fell 16.4%. According to the 5/16/20 New York Times, the hardest hit segment in retail was clothing stores, down 89% from February to April. Next were furniture stores, down 67%, followed by electronics and appliances down 65%. Food services and drinking establishments were down 50%. Gas stations were down 41%.

In a story out of Bridgeport, Connecticut, we are reminded how these stay at home orders are taking us back to an earlier era. A dairy company had stopped their home deliveries 28 years ago. Now, the request for home delivery is booming, as they deliver milk, eggs, cheese and yogurt. I am sure I am not the only one to remember, as a kid, having a metal milk container outside our door, for the milk delivery man. The container held 4 quart bottles (they were glass bottles back then, with the cream at the top), and we would put the empty bottles back in the container, to be replaced with new ones. The local grocery store would deliver; although, at times my Mom would give me a list which I would give to one of the employees, who would bag it up for me to bring home; and they would add the bill to my Mom's tab. We would also get home delivery of seltzer (my Dad loved it), and kosher meats.

On the good news front, this increased demand for home delivery has resulted in Instacart hiring 30,000 new employees. And 31% of US households purchased groceries online, an increase of 145% from a year earlier. Here are some interesting numbers unrelated to the effects of the coronavirus. At the end of 2018, Chick fil-A was fifth in overall restaurant sales, behind McDonald's, Starbucks, Subway and Taco Bell. By the end of 2019, Chick fil-A's sales increased by $1.3 billion, allowing it to move into third place, behind only McDonald's and Starbucks. Their success is notable not only because they are closed on Sundays; but also because of the (in my opinion) unconstitutional efforts by various local governments to prevent Chick fil-A from opening new outlets. (See prior blog posts.)

As noted in the last post, the states are feeling the pressure from significantly reduced tax revenues. The largest state, California, has the Governor proposing a cut in the states's budget by $6.1 billion. He has also proposed a 10% pay cut for state employees, which is estimated to save about $2.8 billion. Any cut would reverse a long term trend of ever rising budgets.

As of last night, the US was reported to have 1,435,098 cases of coronavirus, with 87,315 deaths. New York was still leading with 358,099 cases and 28,134 deaths, followed by New Jersey with 146,389 cases and 10,260 deaths. Massachusetts was fourth (after Illinois) with 84,933 cases and 5,705 deaths, and Connecticut was twelfth with 36,703 cases and 3,339 deaths. California was fifth, with 78,685 cases and 3,208 deaths. Los Angeles County (with 1/4 of the state's population) far exceeded its proportional share of the cases and deaths - 37,303 and 1,793 respectively.

Los Angeles County has extended its stay at home order for 3 months, according to the County's public health Director. However, it is expected that restrictions will be eased during that time. The Hollywood Bowl has canceled its 2020 concert season. The California State University system, with 23 campuses and over 480,000 undergrads (making it the largest public university in the country) has announced that students will not be allowed on campus for the fall semester. The University of California's 10 campuses are also unlikely to fully reopen. Also on the good news front, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (56% to 44%) in a special election held to fill the seat in California's 25th Congressional District vacated by Democrat Katie Hill. A Republican taking a Democratic held seat in the very blue state of California is not exactly a common occurrence.

Did the New York Times really publish this? The New York Times seems to be a little defensive over the fact that New York City has had such a high number of cases and deaths: 197,486 cases and 20,214 deaths. The paper has been running a series of Op-Eds and editorials in defense of cities. On May 15, they ran an Op-Ed by Mary Bassett, a professor and Director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University. In the piece, she argues that "blaming density for disease (including the coronavirus) is misguided." Ordinarily, I might be surprised by the editors letting this piece make it into the paper or online. But when the agenda calls, facts don't seem to matter. Professor Bassett tells us that "in the United States, over half of the population lives in cities of one million residents or more." Not hardly. The cities with one million or more people include NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose and Austin. 11 cities, with a total population of about 28 million people, in a country of about 330 million people.

Some may say, perhaps she meant "metropolitan areas" and not cities. Perhaps. But rather sloppy for a professor, and for the editors. But then she tells us this: "California and Hawaii, for example, have high population density - but not the highest COVID-19 mortality rates of the states." What? High Population density? Not even in the top ten of states. New Jersey is the mostly densely populated state, with a coronavirus death rate of 107 per 100,000 people. New York, is seventh overall in population density (given the more thinly populated upstate areas), but thanks to densely populated NYC has 140 deaths per 100,000 people. And what about California and Hawaii, cited by Professor Bassett? California is eleventh in density, and has 7 deaths per 100,000. Hawaii is thirteenth in density with 1 death per 100,000. The Northeastern states, NY, NJ, Connecticut, Massachusetts Rhode Island an Pennsylvania - are all far more densely populated and all have far higher rates of death from coronavirus.

I do not question the value of cities, although the politics of many Democratic-led cities is another matter. But, is this really the best argument to be made in support of cities? The message is clear - be wary of what you read, especially if it comes in the form of editorials and Op-Eds in the mainstream media.