I watched the entire 50 minutes or so of the meeting between President Trump, VP Vance and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. As much of the world now knows, the last 6 or 7 minutes did not go well. So what happened? I'd like to dispense with what I consider to be a minor issue - Zelenskyy showing up in his wartime garb, instead of a suit. When Trump met Zelenskyy outside as he was arriving at the White House, he made a lighthearted comment to the effect of "I see you dressed up for your visit." It was not nasty. During the 50 minutes, one reporter asked asked Zelenskyy something like this: "Don't you own a suit? Why aren't you wearing a suit?" Trump very graciously stepped in and said "I like his outfit," or something to that effect. And let's not forget Elon Musk's attire at the recent cabinet meeting. He wore a t-shirt with what appeared to be a long coat (sports jacket?) over it. Anyway, enough about that.
Here's a question - as a deal had not yet been signed by the two leaders, why was there an informal press conference? Why was the media there? Isn't the usual procedure to make the deal first, then have either a formal joint press conference, or an informal one such as the one we saw? Why didn't that happen? Why didn't these discussions occur behind closed doors, before going in front of the media? I know that many on the Left believe it was a set-up, an ambush. Unfortunately, arranging this get together backwards could lend credence to that idea. And so could VP Vance's unwarranted attack on Zelenskyy.
But let's back up. It is no secret that many of the world's countries are in search of these rare earth minerals, such as lithium and cobalt. After all, they are components in many technological devices, such as electric batteries, electric vehicles and solar panels. And given how Trump, and much of America, views China, we don't want to have to depend on the Chinese for these minerals. Especially if we end up in armed conflict with China. Unfortunately, while the US has oil and gas, we are lacking in these minerals.
Zelenskyy's focus was on getting "security guarantees." It was a mistake. Trump was not about to commit to sending US troops to Ukraine. And Trump did not want to keep spending US taxpayers' dollars for a war that might continue for another 3 years, or more. The US spent over $2 trillion in Afghanistan. While not even securing a victory. I cannot imagine that Zelenskyy would not know Trump's position on endless wars. Nonetheless, Zelenskyy pushed for "guarantees." He explained how Russia had violated countless agreements previously. And, of course, he was right about that.
We can go back to the December, 1994 "Budapest Memorandum." That was when three former Soviet Republics, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, agreed to give up their nuclear weapons. In exchange, the UK, France, the US and Russia, all signed off on "security assurances" for those former SSR's. But that did not stop Putin from doing what he wanted - to reestablish the Soviet Union. He wants those former Soviet Republics back. He has said so publicly. The 1994 "security assurance" signed by Russia meant nothing to him. Nor would any current peace agreement mean anything to him. So Zelenskyy's concerns are reasonable.
But where did Zelenskyy go wrong? Trump wanted the deal for those rare earth minerals. Reasonable people can argue about whether or not Trump was taking advantage by asking for a 50% interest in the future development of those minerals. And maybe it requires US investment for Ukraine to be able access those minerals for their own benefit. Once the USA had that ownership interest, once Ukraine had an agreement to jointly harvest those minerals with the USA, that's about as good a security agreement as anyone could get. After all, Russia would have to think twice about further incursions into Ukraine, if it meant harming interests of the United States. We want those rare earth minerals, and I have little doubt that any president would make it clear that we will protect our interests. That is the security guarantee. The best that Zelenskyy could get.
Having said that, Vance was also wrong. Zelenskyy explained how Russia had violated every agreement. Vance said that Biden talked tough, but that did not stop Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So now it was time for Trump's diplomacy. Zelenskyy erred again by asking what kind of diplomacy, given all the failed efforts previously. Vance already had no love for Ukraine. Vance replied that it was "disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media." Vance had also claimed, incorrectly, that Zelenskyy had expressed no gratitude to the United States. He had many times previously, and even earlier in the meeting.
I agree with the assessment of the Wall Street Journal as to what should have happened next: "Mr. Zelenskyy would have been wiser to defuse the tension by thanking the U.S. again, and deferring to Mr. Trump." Instead, when Trump spoke up after Vance, Zelenskyy tried to speak over him. He tried to keep arguing his case for security guarantees. That was a mistake. And one that led Trump to say: "You either make a deal or we're out." Later that day, Zelenskyy appeared on Fox News with Bret Baier. When asked by Baier if he should apologize, he replied that he did not do anything wrong. Foolish. Even if he believes that, an apology can be in order when the other party has been offended. Especially when you want billions of dollars from that party.
During this meeting, Trump again said that he supports NATO, but that he wants the European countries to step up their contributions. As they should. Especially with regards to Ukraine, which is in their backyard. The US cannot keep sending armaments to Ukraine if we are depleting our own supplies. It was clear from Trump's comments that he believed a deal had been made. But as someone who has also made deals his entire career, I have never believed that I had a deal until it was signed off on by all the parties involved.
I do not believe that Trump wants to see Ukraine fall to Russia. Zelenskyy should have his ambassador to the US (you may have noticed her holding her head in her hands as the conversation turned ugly) contact Secretary of State Rubio, and tell him that Zelenskyy would like to apologize to Trump. And ask if Trump will take his call. And if Trump wants a public apology, Zelenskyy should do so. Otherwise, I'm afraid that Zelenskyy is not as smart as I thought he was.
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