Biden's Approval Numbers Are Down, But...

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll (from 4/28-5/3) found that 63% of adults believe that President Biden lacks the "mental sharpness" to serve as president.  It is hard to believe that 32% believe he is capable.  And 62% believe Biden is not in "good enough physical health" to serve, with 33% believing he is.

As for former President Trump, his numbers are considerably better.  54% said he was sufficiently sharp, with 64% saying he was sufficiently healthy physically, to serve as president.  When asked who they trusted more to deal with the economy, 54% said Trump, with only 36% saying Biden.  (The poll has  a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.)

So Biden is considerably under water on three significant issues affecting his electability.  But...  But what if one issue dominates over all others?  What if abortion drives the vote in 2024?  In a 2022 poll by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), it was found that 61% of Americans opposed overturning Roe, as the Supreme Court did in Dobbs.  

Not surprisingly, a significant super majority of Democrats (82%) opposed overturning Roe.  But the Independents also opposed overturning Roe (by 63%).  And, even 40% of Republicans opposed overturning Roe.  Here is a statistic that ought to give Republicans pause.  In 2021, the PRRI found that there was not one single state where a majority favored overturning Roe.  

Recently, the Nebraska legislature failed to pass a measure that would have banned abortions after about six weeks.  The current law banning abortion after 20 weeks, remains in effect.

In South Carolina, the legislature tabled a measure that would have banned nearly all abortions.  The purpose of this post is not to discuss the pros and cons of either Roe or Dobbs.  Just last summer I did three posts discussing Dobbs.  (See the two posts on 6/26/22 and one on 6/29/22.)

The question for Republicans is, how should they address the issue of abortion in 2024, as it is clearly going to be a major issue for many people.  During the oral argument of the Dobbs case, Chief Justice Roberts attempted to get both sides to focus on the actual 15 week limitation in the Mississippi statute that was before the Court.  The minority voted to keep Roe intact.  The majority overturned Roe.  Roberts found himself alone, suggesting that the 15 week ban might not be an "undue burden" under the Casey standard.  

I ended up siding with Roberts, and opposing the Dobbs decision.  If the Republicans do not come up with an answer, we may see landslide victories, up and down the ballot, for Democrats.